The Price of Soda Ash in June Was Weak and Downward

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the overall price of soda ash fell in June. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 2,170 RMB/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 2,090 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 3.69% and an increase of 6.63% compared to the same period last year.

On June 30th, the commodity index of light soda ash was 107.18 points, unchanged from the previous day, a decrease of 43.32% from the highest point in the cycle of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 69.72% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Analysis review

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the overall price of soda ash had been weak this month. On the supply side, the operating rate of soda ash was relatively high, the market inventory was sufficient, and the production and sales of enterprises were weak; On the demand side, the terminal market was weak, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high. There was a lack of on-demand follow-up, and market trading was limited. Under the supply-demand game, the price of soda ash was weak and had been lowered. As of June 30, 2024, the prices of soda ash in East China had mainly stabilized, with mainstream market quotations for light soda ash around 2,000-2,250 RMB/ton. The prices of soda ash in Central China remained stable and watchful, with mainstream market quotations for light soda ash around 1,900-2,100 RMB/ton.

In terms of demand: According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the price of glass rose first and then fell this month. The average market price of glass at the beginning of the month was 19.86 RMB/square meter, and the average market price at the end of the month was 19.05 RMB/square meter, a decrease of 4.08%. The spot prices in the glass market were mainly weak, downstream procurement was on demand, market demand was weak, and the price trend was weakly downward.

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 26th week of 2024 (6.24-6.28), there were 0 products that rose, 2 products that fell, and 5 products that rose or fell to 0 in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities falling are PVC (-1.59%) and caustic soda (-0.25%). The average increase and decrease this week was -0.26%.

Market outlook

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the price of light soda ash had remained stable recently, with slight fluctuations in spot alkali plant equipment, and the supply side was still at a relatively high level. Downstream procurement was not active, and mostly maintained replenishment as needed. The reduction in soda ash inventory was limited, and it is expected that soda ash may be consolidated to be weaker in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.